Bayesian demographic estimation and forecasting

Table of Contents

1 Introduction

I Demographic Foundations
2 Demographic Foundations
3 Demographic Individuals
4 Demographic Arrays
5 Demographic Accounts
6 Demographic Data

II Bayesian Foundations
7 Bayesian Foundations
8 Bayesian Model Specification
9 Bayesian Inference and Model Checking

III Inferring Arrays from Reliable Data
10 Inferring Demographic Arrays from Reliable Data
11 Infant Mortality in Sweden
12 Life Expectancy in Portugal
13 Health Expenditure in the Netherlands

IV Inferring Arrays from Unreliable Data
14 Inferring Demographic Arrays from Unreliable Data
15 Internal Migration in Iceland
16 Fertility in Cambodia

V Inferring Accounts
17 Inferring Demographic Accounts
18 Population in New Zealand
19 Population in China
20 Conclusion

Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting presents three statistical frameworks for modern demographic estimation and forecasting. The frameworks draw on recent advances in statistical methodology to provide new tools for tackling challenges such as disaggregation, measurement error, missing data, and combining multiple data sources. The methods apply to single demographic series, or to entire demographic systems. The methods unify estimation and forecasting, and yield detailed measures of uncertainty. The book assumes minimal knowledge of statistics, and no previous knowledge of demography. The authors have developed a set of R packages implementing the methods. Data and code for all applications in the book are available on www.bdef-book.com.

https://www.crcpress.com/Bayesian-Demographic-Estimation-and-Forecasting/Bryant-Zhang/p/book/9781498762625