Superforecasting: the art and science of prediction (Record no. 201462)

MARC details
000 -LEADER
fixed length control field 02058 a2200181 4500
008 - FIXED-LENGTH DATA ELEMENTS--GENERAL INFORMATION
fixed length control field 151029b2015 xxu||||| |||| 00| 0 eng d
020 ## - INTERNATIONAL STANDARD BOOK NUMBER
International Standard Book Number 9781847947147
082 ## - DEWEY DECIMAL CLASSIFICATION NUMBER
Classification number 338.544
Item number T3S8
100 ## - MAIN ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Tetlock, Philip E.
9 (RLIN) 323460
245 ## - TITLE STATEMENT
Title Superforecasting: the art and science of prediction
260 ## - PUBLICATION, DISTRIBUTION, ETC. (IMPRINT)
Name of publisher, distributor, etc Penguin Random House
Date of publication, distribution, etc 2015
Place of publication, distribution, etc London
300 ## - PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION
Extent 340 p.
520 ## - SUMMARY, ETC.
Summary, etc What if we could improve our ability to predict the future?<br/><br/>Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it.<br/><br/>In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project – an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions – has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters.<br/><br/>In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit – whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life.<br/><br/><br/>(http://www.randomhouse.co.uk/editions/seeing-further/9781847947147)
650 ## - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM
Topical term or geographic name as entry element Forecasting
9 (RLIN) 939
650 ## - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM
Topical term or geographic name as entry element Economic forecasting
9 (RLIN) 1005
700 ## - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Gardner, Dan
9 (RLIN) 323461
942 ## - ADDED ENTRY ELEMENTS (KOHA)
Source of classification or shelving scheme Dewey Decimal Classification
Item type Books
Holdings
Withdrawn status Lost status Source of classification or shelving scheme Damaged status Not for loan Collection code Home library Current library Shelving location Date acquired Source of acquisition Cost, normal purchase price Item location Total Checkouts Total Renewals Full call number Barcode Date last seen Date last borrowed Cost, replacement price Koha item type
    Dewey Decimal Classification     Non-fiction Vikram Sarabhai Library Vikram Sarabhai Library General Stacks 30/10/2015 Books India 559.20 Rack 22-B / Slot 921 (0 Floor, East Wing) 12 20 338.544 T3S8 190417 23/07/2024 08/07/2024 699.00 Books